Mike Shatzkin had an interesting post here on Wednesday.
He speculated how publishing would change when e-book sales comprise 25% of all book sales.
He used the International Digital Publishing Forum's stats on e-book sales as the jumping off point.
To illustrate this growth, here are the Fourth Quarter wholesale figures for U.S. e-books over the recent past taken from the IDPF graph here:
Fourth Quarter 2002: $1,649,144
Fourth Quarter 2003: $1,917,384
Fourth Quarter 2004: $3,477,130
Fourth Quarter 2005: $2,175,131
Fourth Quarter 2006: $7,000,000
Fourth Quarter 2007: $8,200,000
Fourth Quarter 2008: $16,800,000
Fourth Quarter 2009: $55,900,000
As eye-popping as these numbers look, e-books still only represented 1.5% of consumer books sales in North America last year according to an article in The Economist here. That same article has Price Waterhouse Coopers estimating this number will rise to about 6% by 2013. And Carolyn Reidy, CEO of Simon & Schuster, believes e-books may comprise 25% of American book sales "within three to five years."
Mike makes a number of interesting projections, which I encourage you to read.
I have a few of my own, which I'll share tomorrow.