Forrester prepares and sells reports on various technological subjects. For instance, right now they are offering a report titled "How eReaders Will Fare In A Tablet PC World" here for $499. That report's principal author is James McQuivey, a VP in Forrester's Consumer Product Strategy division.
The reports always have an abstract, summarizing the report's content. Here's an excerpt from the "How eReaders Will Fare" abstract:
...with just 3.7 million eReaders in the US market at the end of 2009, there is plenty of room for eReaders to grab the attention of the one-fifth of the US online population that reads at least two books per month. By 2015, we forecast that 29.4 million US consumers will own eReaders. We recommend that strategists ... [offer] devices that range from stripped-down $49 pocket readers to full-color touch readers that erase the gap between today's eReaders and tablet PCs.This is in line with the quote I offered in my post of March 25 here from a Forrester survey:
... consumers find e-book readers much too expensive. Extrapolating from the 4,706 U.S. consumers questioned, Forrester found that almost 65 percent of U.S. adults online would consider a price of $98 or less too expensive for an e-book reader but would still purchase one.James McQuivey also operates a blog for Forrester. Yesterday he talked about his new report:
... by the time we enter 2012, tablet PCs like the iPad will surpass eReaders. At that point, a healthy 15.5 million adults in the US will own an eReader ... By 2015, we see the eReader market starting to cap at just under 30 million US adults ... At that point, many bargain eReaders will cost just $49 and some of the best will cost only $99 -- a price point we believe some Amazon competitors may toy with as soon as this holiday seasonGo here to read McQuivey's blog.
Last week there was a lot of talk about attracting the Holy Grail of readership: those readers who read more than two books a month. It turns out that this group is--no surprise--primarily composed of women. Some reports described them as "upscale" and "soccer moms."
While I probably fit the upscale label, I'm definitely not a soccer mom. But I do read more than two books a month. And I haven't purchased a dedicated e-reader yet. If I'm going to buy a device that ONLY permits me to read and store books, Forrester is right. I'm not going to spend more than $100.
If I'm going to spend more than that, I'll buy a device that permits me to write and go on line as well.
And I'm not in any rush. I've never been someone who burns to buy the latest new toy. I don't understand those folk who stand on line all night to buy the new iPhone, iPad, whatever ... I can wait for the prices to come down and the kinks to be worked out.
Sorry, Apple and Amazon.